The Effect of Natural Gas Price liberalization on Natural Gas Consumption in Residential sector in Iran
The Balance between demand and supply of energy carriers is an important issue. Price liberalization of natural gas is one of the best solutions to reduce natural gas consumption so we investigated this matter in our study. In this study use of autoregressive distributed lag model and error correction model model and results indicated that in first scenario (2011-13) annual growth of consumption will be 2.7 percent and its second scenario (2011-15) annual growth of consumption will be 4.2 percent. In first scenario annual consumption will be 36258.56, 36075.51 and 37352.13 million cubic meter respectively and in second scenario will be 37965.73, 38003.13, 39414.1, 41454 and 43931.57 13 million cubic meter respectively. Predict that liberalization in first and second scenario will be decrease 29.19 and 37.21 milliard cubic meter of total consumption in these years respectively.Keywords: liberalization, autoregressive distributed lag, error correction, natural gas
2- Black, K. (1997) â€˜Business statistics, contemporary decision makingâ€™, 2nd Ed. West Publishing Company
3- Engle, R. Granger, C. 1987 â€˜Cointegration and error correction representation: estimation and testingâ€™, Econometrica Journal, 55. pp. 251â€“276.
4- Ferreira, P. Soares, I. Araujo, M. (2005) â€˜Liberalization, consumption heterogeneity and the dynamics of energy pricesâ€™, Energy Policy Journal, vol.33, pp. 2244â€“2255.
5- Halicioglu, F. (2007) â€˜Residential electricity demand dynamics in Turkeyâ€™, Energy Economics Journal, 29.
6- Joutz, F. Trost, R.P. (2007) â€˜An economic analysis of consumer response to natural gas Pricesâ€™,American Gas Association
7- Keshavarz, Gh. Mirbagherijam, M. (2007) â€˜the survey of natural gas demand (residential and commercial) in Iranâ€™, pajoheshhaie eghtesadie Iran Journal, No. 32, pp 137-160.
8- Kosmo, M. (2003) â€˜Commercial energy subsidies in developing countries Opportunity for reformâ€™, Energy Policy Journal, Vol. 17(3), pp. 244â€“253.
9- Levin, R. I. D. S. Rubin, J. P. Stinson, & JR. E. S. Garoner, (1989) â€˜Quantitative approaches to managementâ€™, 7th Ed. McGraw-Hill Editions.
10- Lotfipor, M. Bagheri, A. (2003) â€˜The estimation of residential natural gas demand in Tehranâ€™, pajoheshhaie eghtesadie Iran Journal. No. 16, pp 133-151.
11- Moshiri, S. Shahmoradi, A. (2005) â€˜the estimation of natural gas and electricity residential demand in Iranâ€™, tahghighate eghtesadi Journal. No.72. pp 305-335
12- Noferesti, M. (1999) â€˜Integration and cointegration in econometricsâ€™, Tehran. Rasa Institution. pp 90-102.
13- Nwachukwu, M.U. Harold C. (2011) â€˜Fuel subsidy in Nigeria: Fact or fallacyâ€™, Energy Journal, Vol.36. pp. 2796-2801.
14- Pesaran, M.H. Pesaran, B. (1997) â€˜Working with Microfit 4.0: Interactive Econometric Analysisâ€™, Oxford University Press. Oxford
15- Pesaran, M.H. Shin, Y. Smith, R.J. (2001) â€˜Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationshipsâ€™, Applied Econometrics Journal, 16 (3), pp. 289â€“326.
16- The information and data management sector, (2010) Gas contract management affairs. Iranian national gas company (INGC)
17- Winston, T. Lin Y. Chen, H. Chatov, R. (2002) â€˜The demand for natural gas, electricity and heating oil in the United Statesâ€™, Resources and Energy Journal. Vol. 9(3), October, P. 233-258.