The Vector Auto Regressive Analysis identifying government expenditure policy impact on sustainable economic development


  • James Chindengwike St. John's University of Tanzania
  • Ruchi Tyagi



Vector Auto Regressive Model, Sustainable Development, Infrastructure, Public Spending, Developing Countries, Government Expenditure, Economic Growth, World Bank.


This research investigates the effects of government expenditure in Uganda on infrastructure in promoting sustainable economic. The study used a longitudinal research design using financial records from financial years 1984-85 to 2015-16 as population with a sample size of 32 annual observations. The Johansen cointegration test indicates a long-run association between government expenditure in infrastructure, communication, electricity, and financial development. The Granger- Connection findings shows indirect connection between economic development rate and all the parts of public spending that were used with P-Value 0.04 and lastly, the Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) consequences indicated that public spending on infrastructure, communication, and energy, had a direct effect on economic development rate with P-Value 0.00. The paper recommended that extra spending on substantial infrastructures such as roads, airports, railways, water facilities, electricity, and communication add extensively to the economic development rate by growing the efficiency of the public and private sectors.


Abu, N., Abudullahi, U, "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria, 1970-2008: A Diaggregated Analysis," Business and Economics Journal, vol. 4, no.1, pp. 1-11, 2010.

Gisore .N. Kiprop .S, Kalio A, Ochieng .J. and Lawrence kibeteffect.," Government Expenditure on Economic Growth in East Africa," European Journal of Business and Social Sciences, a Disaggreg, vol. 3, no. 8, pp. 289 – 3, 2014.

Jeffrey M. Stupak., "Economic Impact of Infrastructure Investment Journal of Economic Literature," Journal of Economics, vol.2, no.1, pp. 44-49, 2018.

Loto, M. A., "Impact of Government Sectoral Expenditure on Economic Growth," Journal of Economics and International Finance, vol.3, no. 11, pp.646-652, 2011.

Mary Modupe Fasoranti.,” The Effect of Government Expenditure on Infrastructure on the Growth of the Nigerian Economy: 1977-2009," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Vol. 2, No. 4, pp.513-518, 2012.

Samli, A.C., "Infrastructure: The Key to Achieving Economic Growth, Productivity and Quality of Life. Springer New York Herdelberg, London. Chapter 3, pp 13-22, 2012.

Solow, R. M., "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth", The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 70, no.1, pp. 65-94, 1956.

Solow-Swan, R., "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 50, no.1, pp. 65-94, 1956. DOI:

Verbeck, W. S., "The Nature of Government Expenditure and Its Impact on Sustainable Economic Growth", Middle Eastern Finance and Economics Journal, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 25-56, 2000.

Wagner, A., "Groundwork of Political Economy," Liepzig, Germany: C.F. Winter, vol2, no.1, pp.34-49, 1893

World Bank., "Overview Africa's Infrastructure a Time for Transformation," Journal Africa Development Forum Series, vol.2, no.1, pp. 4-4-22, 2010

Yepes, Tito, Justin Pierce, and Vivien Foster., "Making Sense of Sub-Saharan Africa's Infrastructure Endowment: A Benchmarking Approach." Working Paper 1, Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic, World Bank, Washington, DC, vol.2, no.1, 2008 DOI:

Paul Aparup and Tyagi R. (2021). Affordable Power for Rural Electrification in India. Water and Energy International. 64r (6):35-42. DOI:

Tyagi Ruchi K (2012) Sustaining by working on the bottom of the pyramid: a case of Jaipur Rugs India on its socially responsible practices. International Journal of Business Performance Management. 13(1): 46-59. Inderscience Publishers Ltd. DOI:

Tyagi Ruchi and Vishwakarma S (2021) Prospect of low-cost energy conservation in residential energy consumption. International Journal of Power Electronics and Drive Systems. 12(4): 2408-2418. DOI:

Vishwakarma S. and Tyagi, R. (2020). Smart cities' success - How well utility companies are prepared. IET Conference Publications, 2020(CP777), pp. 149–156. DOI:

Tyagi, Ruchi K and Vasiljevien, Nijole (2013) The case of CSR and irresponsible management practices. Competitiveness Review. 23(4/5):372-383. Available online at DOI:

Tyagi R. (2012) Meerut Embroidery Cluster: A Case Study. South Asian Journal of Business and Management Cases. 1 (2): 185-202. SAGE Publications Sage India: New Delhi, India. Available online at DOI:

Vishwakarma, S. and Tyagi, R. (2017), "Post-reforms training needs of frontline managers in Indian power distribution companies: A top managers' perspective", International Journal of Energy Sector Management. 11(3): 416-425. Accessed at DOI:




How to Cite

Chindengwike, J. and Tyagi, R. (2022) “The Vector Auto Regressive Analysis identifying government expenditure policy impact on sustainable economic development ”, Journal of Global Economy, 18(2), pp. 110–122. doi: 10.1956/jge.v18i2.645.